原文阅读
The threat to world trade
The rules-based system is in grave danger
Whatever the WTO’s problems, it would be a tragedy to undermine it. If America pursues a mercantilist trade policy in defiance of the global trading system, other countries are bound to follow. That might not lead to an immediate collapse of the WTO, but it would gradually erode one of the foundations of the globalised economy.
Everyone would suffer. Mr Trump seems to think trade is a zero-sum affair, in which a deficit is a sign of a bad deal. But the vast improvement in living standards after the second world war went hand in hand with a rapid expansion in world trade over eight trade rounds, each of which lowered barriers. Imports are in fact welcome, because they benefit consumers and spur producers to specialise in what they do best.
Without the WTO, cross-border trade would continue—it is unstoppable—but the lack of norms and procedures would leave disputes to escalate. The fewer the rules, the more scope for mercantilist mischief and backsliding. Trade policy could be captured by special interests. Military power would hold greater sway in trade disputes than economic fair play. Transnational investment could drain away. As a vast continental economy, America would lose less from this than other countries. It would nonetheless lose a lot, including a pillar of the system that has underpinned its post-war political influence.
How should the world get out of this bind? Even as Mr Trump behaves with astonishing irresponsibility, others must keep their heads. Some may impose limited retaliation—that, after all, is how to treat bullies, and the threat to local manufactures will strengthen the hand of Republicans pressing Mr Trump to relent. But such action must be proportionate and limited. A tit-for-tat war with America would be disastrous.
Back to basics
The more important task is to shore up support for trade. It would be comforting to think there is global backing to fix the WTO. But just now, there is not. The only new trade deals on offer are regional, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an 11-country pact signed this week that sets out to be a blueprint for trade modernisation. Although Mr Trump abandoned it, he has hinted he may reconsider, which would be a start.
The best way to help the WTO would be for its other members to co-ordinate any action, including bringing in a WTO complaint about Mr Trump’s tariffs. Even though that may burden the WTO’s court, it would be a vote of confidence in the idea that the global economy should be governed by rules.
The world is a long way from the 1930s, thank goodness. Yet ignorance and complacency have put the trading system in grave danger. Free-traders need to recognise that the WTO can help keep markets open in the face of protectionist lobbying, at home and abroad. It is vital they make the intellectual case for rules-based trade. That will not be easy. For the first time in decades, their biggest foe is the man in the Oval Office.
(This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "The threat to world trade")
(The End).
精读笔记
Whatever the WTO’s problems, it would be a tragedy to undermine it. If America pursues a mercantilist trade policy in defiance of the global trading system, other countries are bound to follow. That might not lead to an immediate collapse of the WTO, but it would gradually erode one of the foundations of the globalised economy.
Everyone would suffer. Mr Trump seems to think trade is a zero-sum affair, in which a deficit is a sign of a bad deal. But the vast improvement in living standards after the second world war went hand in hand with a rapid expansion in world trade over eight trade rounds, each of which lowered barriers. Imports are in fact welcome, because they benefit consumers and spur producers to specialise in what they do best.
in defiance of: 不管，不顾 defiance [dɪ'faɪəns]: behaviour that shows you refuse to do what someone tells you to do, especially because you do not respect them 违抗，拒绝服从
zero-sum: 零和
a rapid expansion: 快速扩张
无论世贸组织有怎样的问题，破坏它都将酿成一场悲剧。如果美国无视全球贸易体系，奉行重商主义的贸易政策，其他国家肯定会效仿。这可能不会导致世贸组织的立即崩溃，但会逐渐侵蚀全球化经济的一大根基。
谁的日子都不会好过。特朗普似乎认为贸易是一种零和游戏，而赤字是糟糕交易的信号。然而二战后生活水平的巨大提高与世界贸易的快速扩张密切相关，推动这种扩张的八个贸易回合谈判中，每一回合都降低了贸易壁垒。进口商品其实是受欢迎的，因为它们使消费者受益，还会促使生产者专注亿他们最擅长的产品。
Without the WTO, cross-border trade would continue—it is unstoppable—but the lack of norms and procedures would leave disputes to escalate. The fewer the rules, the more scope for mercantilist mischief and backsliding. Trade policy could be captured by special interests. Military power would hold greater sway in trade disputes than economic fair play. Transnational investment could drain away. As a vast continental economy, America would lose less from this than other countries. It would nonetheless lose a lot, including a pillar of the system that has underpinned its post-war political influence.
How should the world get out of this bind? Even as Mr Trump behaves with astonishing irresponsibility, others must keep their heads. Some may impose limited retaliation—that, after all, is how to treat bullies, and the threat to local manufactures will strengthen the hand of Republicans pressing Mr Trump to relent. But such action must be proportionate and limited. A tit-for-tat war with America would be disastrous.
cross-border trade: 跨境贸易
escalate ['eskəleɪt]: vt. if fighting, violence, or a bad situation escalates, or if someone escalates it, it becomes much worse (使)〔战斗、暴力事件或不好的情况〕升级；(使)恶化
mischief ['mɪstʃɪf,'mɪstʃəf]: n. bad behaviour, especially by children, that causes trouble or damage, but no serious harm 恶作剧，制造麻烦
backsliding: 倒退，滑坡
special interests: 特殊利益群体
hold sway: 有支配...的权利，有左右...的力量 sway在此处意为 power to rule or influence people #She was now completely under his sway.
fair play: 公平竞争
drain away: 把...排掉，使...外流 drain [dreɪn]: vt. 使流走，排干 #The more viscous a fluid, the longer it will take to drain away.
nonetheless [‚nʌnðə'les]: adv. 尽管如此
bind [baɪnd]: an annoying or difficult situation 窘境，困境
bully [ˈbʊli]: n. 恃强凌弱者
disastrous [dɪ'zɑːstrəs]: adj. diaster的变形，意为灾难性的
如果没有世贸组织，跨境贸易仍将继续，毕竟这是不可阻挡的，但缺乏规范和规程将导致争端升级。规则越少，重商主义制造麻烦和倒退的余地就越大。贸易政策可能会被特殊利益集团把持。在贸易争端中，军事力量会比经济上的公平竞争更具影响力。跨国投资可能会流失。作为一个巨大的大陆经济体，美国的损失会少于其他国家。然而它还是会损失重大，包括支撑其战后政治影响力的体系中的一大支柱。
全世界应该如何摆脱这一困局？特朗普表现出惊人的不负责任之时，其他人必须保持冷静。一些人可能会采取有限的报复措施，毕竟对恃强凌弱者就是要反击，而对本土制造商的威胁也会让共和党人极力劝说特朗普放宽政策。但这类行动必须适度且有限度。对美国以牙还牙将会是一场灾难。
The more important task is to shore up support for trade. It would be comforting to think there is global backing to fix the WTO. But just now, there is not. The only new trade deals on offer are regional, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an 11-country pact signed this week that sets out to be a blueprint for trade modernisation. Although Mr Trump abandoned it, he has hinted he may reconsider, which would be a start.
The best way to help the WTO would be for its other members to co-ordinate any action, including bringing in a WTO complaint about Mr Trump’s tariffs. Even though that may burden the WTO’s court, it would be a vote of confidence in the idea that the global economy should be governed by rules.
The world is a long way from the 1930s, thank goodness. Yet ignorance and complacency have put the trading system in grave danger. Free-traders need to recognise that the WTO can help keep markets open in the face of protectionist lobbying, at home and abroad. It is vital they make the intellectual case for rules-based trade. That will not be easy. For the first time in decades, their biggest foe is the man in the Oval Office.
shore up: 支撑。shore用作名词常为岸边之意，此处为支撑、支持之意
Trans-Pacific Partnership: 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定
pact [pækt]: n. a formal agreement between two groups, countries, or people, especially to help each other or to stop fighting 条约、协议
hint [hɪnt]: vi. something that you say or do to suggest something to someone, without telling them directly 与imply意思相近
a vote of confidence: 信任票 a vote of no confidence 不信任票
complacency [kəm'pleɪs(ə)nsɪ]: n. a feeling of satisfaction with a situation or with what you have achieved, so that you stop trying to improve or change things – used to show disapproval 自满 complacent: 自满的 相近的有：self-satisfied（自满的）
in the face of: 面对
foe [fəʊ]: n. 敌人
更重要的任务是加强对贸易的支持。如果全球都支持修整世贸组织，可能会让人稍感安慰。但现状并非如此。仅有的新贸易协议也是地区性的，比如《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》，这个于本周签署的十一国协定将成为贸易现代化的蓝图。尽管特朗普之前放弃了这一协定，但他也暗示过会重新考虑，这将会是个新的开始。
要帮助世贸组织，最好的办法是其他成员在所有行动上协调一致，包括向世贸组织投诉特朗普的关税政策。尽管这可能会给世贸组织的法庭带来负担，但这将会是一张“信任票”，表示各国相信全球经济应当受到规则的管理约束。
谢天谢地，我们离上世纪30年代已经很遥远了。然而，无知和自满让贸易体系岌岌可危。支持自由贸易的人要认识到，在面对贸易保护主义的游说时，世贸组织有助于保持市场开放，无论在国内还是国外。至关重要的一点是，他们得证明基于规则的贸易是有理有据的。这并不容易。眼下他们最大的敌人就是椭圆办公室的那个人。几十年来，这还是头一遭。
(The End)
原文选自经济学人Leaders栏目（Mar 8th 2018）
译文来自经济学人·商论
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