The missing middle class

There is a hole where India’s middle class should be. That should worry the government and companies

AFTER China, where next? Over the past two decades, the world’s most populous country has become the market qua non of just about every global company seeking growth. As its economy slows, businesses are looking for the next set of

consumers to keep the tills ringing.

sine qua non 必要条件

till  / tɪl; tɪl/ n  drawer in which money is kept behind the counter in a shop, bank, etc or in a cash register （店舖﹑ 银行等的）放钱的抽屉.

To many, India feels like the heir apparent. Its population will soon overtake its Asian rival’s. It occasionally grows at the kind of pace that propelled China to the status of economic superpower. And its middle class is thought by many to be in the early stages of the journey to prosperity that created hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers. Exuberant management consultants speak of a 300m-400m horde of potential frapuccino-sippers, Fiesta-drivers and globe-trotters.Rare is the chief executive who, upon visiting India, does not proclaim it as central to his or her plans. Some ofthat may be a diplomatic dose of flattery; much of it, from firms such as IKEA, SoftBank, Amazon and Starbucks, is sincerely meant.

heir-apparent：指“有确定继承权的”,或者“准继承人的

exuberant  / ɪgˈzjuːbərənt; US -ˈzuː-; ɪɡˋzubərənt/ adj  (esp of people and their behaviour)overflowing with happiness and excitement; very lively and cheerful （尤指人和行为）兴高采烈的, 活跃的, 愉快的

horde  / hɔːd; hɔrd/ n (sometimes derog 有时作贬义) very large group (esp of people); huge crowd; throng 大群, 大帮（尤指人）; 人群: hordes of fans 大群的狂热爱好者

Frappuccino法布奇诺（星冰乐）

sip  / sɪp; sɪp/ v (-pp-) [I, Tn] drink(sth), taking very small quantities each time 小口喝; 抿: drink one'stea, sipping noisily 喝茶时小口抿出声

Fiesta：福特嘉年华

trotter  [ˈtrɔtə(r)] n.专门训练用于小跑的马；（供食用的）猪蹄，猪爪

proclaim  / prəˈkleɪm; prəˋklem/ v  [Tn, Tf, Tw, Cn.n] make (sth) known officiallyor publicly; announce 宣告, 公布（某事物）; 声明: proclaimthe good news 宣布好消息

flattery  n 奉承；恭维话；甜言蜜语

Hold your elephants. The Indian middle class conjured up by the marketers and consultants scarcely exists. Firms peddling anything much beyond soap, matches and phone-credit are targeting a minuscule slice of the population. The top 1% of Indian adults, a rich enclave of 8m inhabitants making at least $20,000 ayear, equates to roughly Hong Kong in terms of population and average income.The next 9% is akin to central Europe, in the middle of the global wealth pack.The next 40% of India’s population neatly mirrors its combined South Asian poor neighbours, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The remaining half-billion or so are on a par with the most destitute bits of Africa. To be sure,global companies take the markets of central Europe seriously. Plenty of fortunes have been made there. But they are no China.

conjure / ˈkʌndʒə(r); ˋkʌndʒɚ/ v  (phr v) conjure sth up make sth appearas a picture in the mind 使某事物浮现於脑际: a tune which conjures up pleasantmemories 唤起美好回忆的曲调.

peddle/ ˈpedl; ˋpɛdl/ v [Tn, Dn.pr] ~ sth (to sb) tryto sell (goods) by going from house to house or by offering them to individualpeople （挨家）兜售（货物）: peddle one's wares 上门推销货物

minuscule  / ˈmɪnəskjuːl; mɪˋnəskjul/ adj very small; tiny 极小的; 微小的.

enclave  / ˈenkleɪv; ˋɛnklev/ n smallterritory of one state surrounded by that of another 飞地（被他国领土包围的一块领土）: Britishenclaves in Africa 非洲的英国飞地

mirror v [Tn] reflect (sth) as in a mirror 反射, 映照（某事物）: The trees were mirrored in the still water of the lake. 静静的湖水映出岸上的树木. * (fig 比喻) a novel that mirrors modern society反映现代社会的小说.

on a par with sb/sth equal inimportance, quality, etc to sb/sth 与某人[某事物]同等重要﹑同水平等: As a writer she was on a parwith the great novelists. 她是与伟大小说家齐名的作家

destitute  / ˈdestɪtjuːt; US -tuːt; ˋdɛstəˏtut/ adj  [pred 作表语] ~ of sth (fml 文) lacking sth 缺少某事物: officials who are destitute of ordinary human feelings 毫无感情的官员.

Centreparting

Worse, the chances of India developing amiddle class to match the Middle Kingdom’s are being throttled by growing inequality. The top1% of earners pocketed nearly a third of all theextra income generated by economic growth between 1980 and 2014, according to new research from economists including Thomas Piketty. The well-offare ten times richernow than in 1980; those at the median have not even doubled their income. India has done a good job at getting those earning below $2 a day (at purchasing-power parity) to $3, but it has not matched other countries’ recordsin getting those on $3 a day to earning$5, those at $5 a day to $10, and so on.Middle earners in countries at India’s stage of development usually take more of the gains from growth. Eight in ten Indians cite inequality as a big problem, on a par with corruption.

The Middle Kingdom, a.k.a. China (traditional translation of its Chinese name)

throttle  / ˈθrɔtl; ˋθrɑtl/ v  [Tn]seize (sb) by the throat and stop him breathing; choke; strangle 扼（某人）的颈部; 使窒息; 勒死 (fig 比喻) accused the government of throttlingthe freedom of the press 谴责政府扼杀新闻自由.

pocket v [Tn]  put (sth)into one's pocket 将（某物）放入衣袋: He pocketed the tickets. 他把票放进衣袋里了.

The reasons for this failure are not mysterious. Decades of statist intervention meant that when a measure of liberalisation came in the early 1990s, only a fewwere able to benefit. The workforce is woefully unproductive—no surprise given the abysmal state of India’s education system, which churns out millions of adults equipped only for menial work. Its graduates go on to toil in small or micro-enterprises, operating informally;these “employ” 93% of all Indians. The great swellof middle-class jobs that China created as it became the workshop to the world is not to be found in India,because turning small businesses into productive large ones is made nigh-on impossible by bureaucracy. The fact that barely a quarter of women work—a share that has seen a precipitous decline in the past decade—only makes matters worse.

statist  [ˈsteitist] 统计师; 统计学家; 统计员

woeful  /ˈwəʊ.f^əl/ US /ˈwoʊ-/adjective very bad or (ofsomething very bad or unpleasant) very great or extreme: The team's woeful record consists of six defeatsin seven matches.

abysmal  / əˈbɪzməl; əˋbɪzml/ adj  (infml 口) extremely bad 极坏的: live in abysmal conditions 在极恶劣的情况下生活

churn sth out (infml口) produce sth (usu of bad quality) inlarge amounts 大量生产某物（通常质量恶劣）; 粗制滥造: She churns out romantic novels. 她写了很多浪漫小说, 质量很差.

menial  / ˈmiːnɪəl; ˋminɪəl/ adj (usuderog 通常作贬义) (of work)suitable to be done by servants; unskilled （指工作）适合仆人做的;非技术性的: a menial task, job,etc 非技术性的任务﹑ 工作等

toil  / tɔɪl; tɔɪl/ v (fmlor rhet 文或修辞)  [I, Ipr, Ip, It] ~ away (at/over sth) worklong or hard 长时间或辛苦工作: studentstoiling over their homework 辛辛苦苦做功课的学生

swell n [U, sing] (music 音) gradual increase in the volume of sound （音量的）逐渐增强.

workshop研讨会; 讲习班; 工作会议; 车间；修配所；工场; 工作室；

nigh-on： 几乎;差不多

precipitous  / prɪˈsɪpɪtəs / adj (fml文) dangerously high or steep 险峻的; 陡峭的

Good policy can do an enormous amount to improve prospects. However, hope should be tempered by realism. India is blessed with a deeply entrenched democratic system, but that is no shieldagainst poor decisions. The sudden and brutal “demonetisation”of the economy in 2016 was meant to target fat cats, but ended up hurting everybody.And the path to prosperity walked by China, where manufacturing produced the jobs that pushed up incomes, is narrowing as automation limits opportunities for factory work.

temper  / ˈtempə(r); ˋtɛmpɚ/ v  [Tn, Tn.pr] ~ sth (with sth) moderateor soften the effects of sth; mitigate sth 调和或减轻某事物的作用; 使某事缓和

entrenched  adj （权力，风俗，习惯等）确立的；不容易改的

demonetisation  n. ending something (e.g. gold or silver) as no longer the legal tender of acountry; （2016年印度废钞）

All of which means that companies need todeal with the India that exists today rather than the one they wish to emerge.A strategy of waiting for Indians to develop a taste for products that theglobal middle class indulges in—cars as income per head crosses one threshold, foreign holidays when it crosses the next—may lead to decades of frustration. Only 3% of Indians have ever been on anaeroplane; only one in 45 owns a car or lorry. If nearly 300m Indians count as“middle class”, as HSBC has proclaimed, some of them make around $3 a day.

indulge  / ɪnˈdʌldʒ; ɪnˋdʌldʒ/ v  [I, Ipr]~ (in sth) allow oneself to enjoy the pleasure of sth 让自己尽情享受某事物: indulge in (theluxury of) a long hot bath （奢侈地）享受一下泡在浴缸里洗上半天热水澡的美滋味.

Big market, smaller opportunities

Companies would do better to “Indianise”their business by, for example, peddling ware susing regional languages preferred by hundreds of millions of Indians. Pricing matters. Services proffered at the same price inIndia as Indiana will appeal to mere millions, not a billion. Even for someonein the top 10% of Indian earners, an annual Netflix subscription can cost over a week’s income; the equivalent in America would be around$3,000. Apple ads may plaster Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore,but for only one in ten Indians would the latest iPhone represent less thanhalf a year’s salary. The biggest consumer hits in India have been goods and services that offer stonking value: scooters and mobile telephony have grown fast, but only after prices tumbled.

ware  / weə(r); wɛr/ n  [U] (esp in compounds 尤用以构成复合词) (a) manufactured goods (of the specifiedtype) （某类）制造品: `ironware 铁器 * `hardware 五金制品 * `silverware 银器.

proffer  / ˈprɔfə(r); ˋprɑfɚ/ v[Tn, Dn.n, Dn.pr] ~ sth(to sb) (fml 文) offer sth 提供﹑ 提出某事物: He refused the proffered assistance. 他拒绝接受向他提供的帮助.

plaster v  [Tn.pr] ~ Awith B/~ B on(to) A cover sth with sth thickly, as one puts plaster on awall plaster the town with posters 把海报贴遍市镇.

Delhi：德里（印度）

Bangalore：班加罗尔（印度）

stonking /ˈstɒŋ.kɪŋ/ US /ˈstɑːŋ-/ adjective UKSLANG used to emphasize how good something is:We had a stonking good time at the party lastnight.

scooter  / ˈskuːtə(r); ˋskutɚ/ n  (also `motor-scooter) light motorcycle, usu with small wheels, a low seat and a metal shield protecting thedriver's legs 小型摩托车.

The sharpest businesses workout which “enablers” will allow Indians to gain access to new goods. Electrification drives demand for fridges.Cheap mobile data (India is in the midst of a data-price war that has hugely benefited consumers) are a boon to streaming services. Logistics networks put together by e-commerce giants are for the first time making it possible for a consumer in a third-tier city to buy global fashion brands. A surge in consumer financing has put desirable baubles within reach of more Indians.

fridge  / frɪdʒ; frɪdʒ/ n (infml口) refrigerator 冰箱.

boon  / buːn; bun/ n  thing that one is thankful for; benefit;advantage 所感激的事; 好处; 利益: Parks area great boon to people in big cities. 在大城市里,公园是人们的好去处.

bauble  / ˈbɔːbl; ˋbɔbl/ n (usu derog 通常作贬义) showy ornament of little value 华而不实的装饰品.

Insofar as it is the job of politicians to create a consumer class, successive Indian governments havelargely failed. Businesses hoping the Indian middle class will provide their next spurt of growth should be under no illusion. Companies will have to work very hard to turn potential into profits.

insofar  [ɪnsəʊˈfɑː(r)] adv.在这个范围  "Insofaras I can see, the representatives are all satisfied with the arrangement." "据我了解,代表们对这一安排都感到满意。"

spurt  / spɜːt; spət/ v  [I]increase one's speed, effort, etc suddenly, esp in a race or other contest 突然加速﹑ 用力等; （尤指在赛跑等竞赛中）冲刺: The runner spurted as he approached the line. 那赛跑选手在接近终点线时加速冲刺.

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