3 Strikes （三振出局）

2018年1月15日，星期一，晴，空气质量优

摘要：德国政府组阁进展极大提振了欧元，DXY三年来第一次跌破91大关。美国通胀整体稳健，核心通胀超预期导致市场对美联储年内加息次数再定价。本周数据面偏轻，债券抛售情绪有望缓解。

欧洲时间刚进来不久，据说Merkel在彻夜组阁谈判进程中取得突破性进展，EURUSD闻声而起，EGB趁势回调。但是已经连跌两天DAX似乎不太领情，还是一副爱死不活的样子。这时候，法国12月调和CPI同比终值 1.2%，预期 1.3%，初值 1.3%。算是中和了一点儿德国利好，EURUSD也在高位回调。4:30的时候，德国政局谈判的消息逐渐明朗，彭博上不停闪着一行字的那种新闻条目，包括什么谈判双方希望将ESM的纾困机制转换为欧洲议会控制下的欧洲货币基金（临时机构改常设了）。EURUSD也彻底上穿前次高点，站到了1.21之上。在此之前，usdcny也创新低了。很多媒体在报道美元走软的时候都是带着幸灾乐祸的口气，殊不知当今大家都是在拼出口，本币走软偷着乐吧。接近5点半的时候，终于有了比较正式的消息，默克尔和社民党正式达成了新政府的初步协议。非常有意思的是，欧元一涨再涨，但是德国欧洲的政府债务反而受到追捧，暂时出现了利率和汇率脱钩的现象。

美国时间，还是先看超重量级的经济数据。12月CPI增长0.1%mom ，2.1%yoy，符合预期，核心CPU增长是0.3%mom，1.8%yoy，预期分别是0.2%和1.7%。美国12月零售增长0.4% mom vs 0.5%，除去汽车的增长是0.4% mom vs0.3%，除去汽车汽油是0.4% mom，符合预期，控制类（control group，除去汽车汽油建材和食品）是0.3% mom vs0.4%，同时对11月的数字向上修正。11月的商业库存为0.4%，符合预期。通胀数据出来之后，市场认为名义稳健且核心通胀强于预期的组合非常令人鼓舞的，UST再次被抛售。这是最大的不同，沉寂多日的前端最先开始发动。市场的这种反应可能就是在为美联储更多加息次数在定价了。美国国债两年期第一次升破了2%，这可是2008年9月份以来第一次。美联储在3月加息的概率升至85%，2018年年内的加息次数也增加到了2.5次。不过虽然美国的短端利率在加速，但是美元几乎无动于衷，甚至在午夜之后大幅继续走软。相应的ust曲线熊平在午夜前逐步受到进场资金追捧，午夜之后，RM和FM都加速集中在长端buy the dip，导致曲线牛平。监管方面，首先Kaplan重申了他明年认为今年三次加息的观点，而ECB的魏德曼通过路透表达了自己认为ECB短期内改变利率的风险是非常小的。脱欧方面，先是彭博报道西班牙和荷兰已经同意给与英国一个软脱欧的协议，后来那个荷兰又否认了这个事儿。开玩笑，欧洲的事儿德国不点头，这些pefiphery或者semi-periphery敢BB啥。美国政局方面，Trump这个周末玩推不要太爽，不停地发啊发。而道琼斯报道特朗普政府说他准备和欧洲盟友一道修改伊朗协议，在此之前暂时维持伊核协议的豁免期。再就是美国夏威夷受到虚假导弹来袭的警报。

本周前瞻，市场焦点将再次集中在美国政府是否关门的问题上。综合近期的相关报道，这里边有三个方面的意见争执，一种是是否决定自动提高政府的开支上限，二是DACA的拨款计划，从附录中的特朗普的推也可以发现d ace最近被频频提起；第三个就是关于国防和非国防开支问题，两党就此的争议还是比较明显的。经济数据方面，制造业和住房两大类唱主角，周二是纽约联储的帝国调查。周三是费城联储的调查，周三是IP和NAHB住房信心指数，周五是密歇根大学消费者信心消费者指数调查。Fed方面，继续不停有声音出来，周四有联储黄皮书，当天有evans，non-voter和Mester （voter）。比较耐人寻味的是，Trump任命的Fed理事，也是监管委员会的副主席 Quarles将于周五就银行业监管发表演讲——要知道，近期美股这么火，既有tax cut的功劳，也有de-regulation的成分呢

晚上美国假日，没啥事。明天停更一次吧。今天札记题目的意思就是指TY.近期已经两次冲击2.60未果,已经没什么上冲的动力了.本周数据面偏轻,美联储官员周五的讲话需要密切关注一下.这样,市场抛售的情绪目前看起来会有一个逐波缓释的过程.再加上本周只有四个交易日.啰嗦了这么多,其实就是想表达TY不考验一下2.50我心里觉得怪怪的。另外，周五参加了一场策略会，甲方的董事长和总经理简直胡B扯，反而是乙方的首席啊MD啊逻辑清晰语言严谨。就冲这，最好资管新规马上落地，搞死这帮肥头大耳的！盗用QQ总话啊“资管行业在过去的乱象之下，居然是个体力活，本来应该是个智力活，大家比谁这个通道能力强，比谁的胆子大，比谁加杠杆更凶猛”。北大教授deng feng写了篇“关于滥用”穿透的文章在caixin上，我只能说旧势力很强大啊。读到这里，也许有的读者会问，你这个老男人怎么还这么愤啊。推荐大家去看qq总团队今天的文章《旧故事的延续——2018年焦点问题的探讨》。很短，一分钟就能看完，真正了解市场的tx会对流动性分层，利率双轨制这些描述会心一笑，也能对要习惯上班坐专车改为下班小黄车的预言心有戚戚焉，而不了解市场的则会一头雾水。而看那两家机构的董事长总经理发言基本上等于八股文一流的行政官员谈火箭发动机的制造关键点的水平。今天债券基金的考核如果以三月cd为基准，一定要配合三月到一年曲线的斜率为调整项。

ps：1、有些读者的影响力惊人啊。周五加了一位soe的FI同行，还是位领导，请求帮忙转发宣传一下，瞬间订阅猛涨。在VR世界，每个人的影响力有大不同啊；2、周五中基协在系统发布最新《私募投资基金备案须知》，明确三大情形不属于私募基金范围，一度让我感叹今年果然是狗年，十足真金的金融狗的狗年！可是周六中纪委公报，着力解决金融信贷等重点领域腐败问题，重点查处政治问题和经济问题相互交织形成利益集团的腐败案件。又让我感觉，有些人今年日子比金融狗还不如呢。结果这还不算完，周六晚上CBRC又出了个四号文，分析师的命真苦啊！不过作为一名苦逼的年级一大把仍然坚持在欧洲半场美国收市看市场的美债交易员，觉得春天似乎就要来了。3、央行1月12日发布《2017年金融统计数据报告》，数据显示，中国2017年12月M2同比增8.2%，预期9.2%，前值9.1%；12月新增人民币贷款5844亿元，前值11200亿元。不管是不是年底额度用完，等着今年1月份用，这都不是利好。但是全球经济大复苏背景下，A股如果顺势调整，还是很好的进入机会。

个人微信zhangke8639，欢迎同业交换名片。公众号更新速度快一点儿.....

近期重要时间点：

1月25日，ECB会议

1月19日，美国政府关门考验

1月下旬，Davos论坛

1月30日，Trump国情咨文

2月3日，新任Fed主席Powell就职

2月9-25日，平昌冬奥会

3月4日或11日，意大利大选——意大利国债届时如果跌幅过大，严重考虑买入，carry上选

3月18日，俄罗斯总统大选,普京确定参选

Q1早些时候，Trump访英

7月，墨西哥总统大选

术语对照表（慢慢补充，不明白的读者可以留言）：

EGB：欧洲政府债

Bund：德国政府债

Gilt：英国国债

Core：欧盟28国中的德法，意大利以前能算，现在不算了

Periphery：EU28中葡萄牙西班牙希腊等

UST：美国政府债

OAT：法国国债

BTP：意大利国债

Sterling/cable：英镑

Aussie：澳元

TY/TY*：美债十年期收益率/期货

2s10s：美国国债10年期收益率与2年期之差

5s30s：美国国债30年期收益率与5年期之差

Banxico：墨西哥央行

Bundesbank：德国央行

Riksbank：瑞典央行

附注：昨夜今晨推

0112  1048  Thank you Adam Levine, The Federalist, in interview on @foxandfriends “Donald Trump is the greatest President our Country has ever seen.”

0112  1048  Small Business Poll has highest approval numbers in the polls history. All business is just at the beginning of something really special!

0112  1053  More great news as a result of historical Tax Cuts and Reform: Fiat Chrysler announces plan to invest more than $1 BILLION in Michigan plant, relocating their heavy-truck production from Mexico to Michigan, adding 2,500 new jobs and paying $2,000 bonus to U.S. employees! https://t.co/47azKD0l9B

0112  1053  Chrysler is moving a massive plant from Mexico to Michigan, reversing a years long opposite trend. Thank you Chrysler, a very wise decision. The voters in Michigan are very happy they voted for Trump/Pence. Plenty of more to follow!

0112  1103  Democrat Dianne Feinstein should never have released secret committee testimony to the public without authorization. Very disrespectful to committee members and possibly illegal. She blamed her poor decision on the fact she had a cold - a first!

这位民主党议员将参议院司法委员会的一场关于特朗普通俄门调查的会议记录披露了出来。从分析看，一来马上要开展中期选举了，她在给自己制造人气，二来从实际情况看，反而是对特朗普有利的，我不明白为什么Trump这么生气。

0112  1243  The Democrats seem intent on having people and drugs pour into our country from the Southern Border, risking thousands of lives in the process. It is my duty to protect the lives and safety of all Americans. We must build a Great Wall, think Merit and end Lottery & Chain. USA!

0112  1303  Reason I canceled my trip to London is that I am not a big fan of the Obama Administration having sold perhaps the best located and finest embassy in London for “peanuts,” only to build a new one in an off location for 1.2 billion dollars. Bad deal. Wanted me to cut ribbon-NO!

0112  2003  The so-called bipartisan DACA deal presented yesterday to myself and a group of Republican Senators and Congressmen was a big step backwards. Wall was not properly funded, Chain & Lottery were made worse and USA would be forced to take large numbers of people from high crime.........countries which are doing badly. I want a merit based system of immigration and people who will help take our country to the next level. I want safety and security for our people. I want to stop the massive inflow of drugs. I want to fund our military, not do a Dem defund........Because of the Democrats not being interested in life and safety, DACA has now taken a big step backwards. The Dems will threaten “shutdown,” but what they are really doing is shutting down our military, at a time we need it most. Get smart, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

0112  2033  The language used by me at the DACA meeting was tough, but this was not the language used. What was really tough was the outlandish proposal made - a big setback for DACA!

0112  2053  Sadly, Democrats want to stop paying our troops and government workers in order to give a sweetheart deal, not a fair deal, for DACA. Take care of our Military, and our Country, FIRST!

0112  2153  Never said anything derogatory about Haitians other than Haiti is, obviously, a very poor and troubled country. Never said “take them out.” Made up by Dems. I have a wonderful relationship with Haitians. Probably should record future meetings - unfortunately, no trust!

0113  0203  Today, it was my great honor to proclaim January 15, 2018, as Martin Luther King Jr., Federal Holiday. I encourage all Americans to observe this day with appropriate civic, community, and service activities in honor of Dr. King's life and legacy. https://t.co/samlJsz1Nt

0113  2117  Yesterday was a big day for the stock market. Jobs are coming back to America. Chrysler is coming back to the USA, from Mexico and many others will follow. Tax cut money to employees is pouring into our economy with many more companies announcing. American business is hot again!

0113  2117  The Democrats are all talk and no action. They are doing nothing to fix DACA. Great opportunity missed. Too bad!

0113  2117  AMERICA FIRST!

0113  2222  Yesterday was another big day for jobs and the Stock Market. Chrysler coming back to U.S. (Michigan) from Mexico and many more companies paying out Tax Cut money to employees. If Dems won in November, Market would have TANKED! It was headed for disaster.

0113  2222  I don’t believe the Democrats really want to see a deal on DACA. They are all talk and no action. This is the time but, day by day, they are blowing the one great opportunity they have. Too bad!

0114  0612  So much Fake News is being reported. They don’t even try to get it right, or correct it when they are wrong. They promote the Fake Book of a mentally deranged author, who knowingly writes false information. The Mainstream Media is crazed that WE won the election!

0114  1142  RT @LouDobbs: The stock market has gained an incredible 7.8 Trillion dollars in market value since @POTUS was elected! Looks like 4% economic growth in 4th quarter, lowest level of claims for unemployment benefits in 44 years, and black unemployment rate is the lowest (6.8%) on record! #MAGA https://t.co/UebtEuamsx

0114  1147  RT @JackPosobiec: Dick Durbin called Trump racist for wanting to end chain migration. Here's a video of Dick Durbin calling for an end to chain migration https://t.co/xcbXT4UH8Q

0114  1152  RT @paulsperry_: Fusion GPS, firm behind disputed Russia dossier, retracts its claim of FBI mole in Trump camp https://t.co/s6CFPXSVqb

就是这家公司提供了通俄门材料

0114  1152  RT @paulsperry_: https://t.co/aU1rdyKA1W

0114  2102  The Wall Street Journal stated falsely that I said to them “I have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un” (of N. Korea). Obviously I didn’t say that. I said “I’d have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un,” a big difference. Fortunately we now record conversations with reporters...

...and they knew exactly what I said and meant. They just wanted a story. FAKE NEWS!

0114  2107  RT @realDonaldTrump: So much Fake News is being reported. They don’t even try to get it right, or correct it when they are wrong. They promote the Fake Book of a mentally deranged author, who knowingly writes false information. The Mainstream Media is crazed that WE won the election!

0114  2112  DACA is probably dead because the Democrats don’t really want it, they just want to talk and take desperately needed money away from our Military.

0114  2122  I, as President, want people coming into our Country who are going to help us become strong and great again, people coming in through a system based on MERIT. No more Lotteries! #AMERICA FIRST

0114  2152  “President Trump is not getting the credit he deserves for the economy. Tax Cut bonuses to more than 2,000,000 workers. Most explosive Stock Market rally that we’ve seen in modern times. 18,000 to 26,000 from Election, and grounded in profitability and growth. All Trump, not 0...

...big unnecessary regulation cuts made it all possible” (among many other things). “President Trump reversed the policies of President Obama, and reversed our economic decline.” Thank you Stuart Varney. @foxandfriends

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